Treasury forecasts of a further decline in the New Zealand property market are overly pessimistic, says Queenstown-based NZ Sotheby’s International Realty managing director, Mark Harris.
In last week’s Budget, Treasury’s predicting a further 5% decline in property prices through to mid-next year, equating to a 21% ‘peak to trough’ decrease from late 2021 to ’24.
‘‘I think this is a little negative, and it’s a bigger drop than the banks have predicted,’’ Harris says.
‘‘In my view, we’ve already reached the bottom of the market in some regions, like Queenstown-Lakes, where it feels like we’re almost back to normal, and we’re very close to reaching the bottom in others.
‘‘Long-term interest rates are also starting to come down as inflation drops, which is another sign demand should pick up.’’
Harris’ advice to first-home buyers who can get finance is to get in now while demand and prices are still low, and the economy’s still strong.
‘‘It’s time to move.
‘‘You might be the only one bidding on a home at the moment, but in 12 months the prices are likely to have increased, and there will be more buyers in the market.’’
After October’s election, Harris hopes the new government relaxes tenancy rules, causing landlord ‘‘paranoia’’, introduces controlled changes to overseas buyer rules, and loosens restrictions on the ‘bright line’ test.
